Bifurcation analysis of a north Atlantic Ocean box model with two deep-water formation sites

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSD.2023.133907MaRDI QIDQ6090653zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Alannah Neff, Andrew Keane, Henk Dijkstra, Bernd Krauskopf

Publication date 17 November 2023

Published in Physica D (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.11975

zbMATH Keywords

Atlantic meridional overturning circulationbifurcation analysisconceptual climate modeltipping

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Dynamical systems in fluid mechanics, oceanography and meteorology (37N10) Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography (86A05) Climate science and climate modeling (86A08)

Abstract: The tipping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to a 'shutdown' state due to changes in the freshwater forcing of the ocean is of particular interest and concern due to its widespread ramifications, including a dramatic climatic shift for much of Europe. A clear understanding of how such a shutdown would unfold requires analyses of models from across the complexity spectrum. For example, detailed simulations of sophisticated Earth System Models have identified scenarios in which deep-water formation first ceases in the Labrador Sea before ceasing in the Nordic Seas, en route to a complete circulation shutdown. Here, we study a simple ocean box model with two polar boxes designed to represent deep-water formation at these two distinct sites. A bifurcation analysis reveals how, depending on the differences of freshwater and thermal forcing between the two polar boxes, transitions to 'partial shutdown' states are possible. Our results shed light on the nature of the tipping of AMOC and clarify dynamical features observed in more sophisticated models.

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Cites work

• Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model
• Dynamic tipping in the non-smooth Stommel-box model, with fast oscillatory forcing
• Nonlinear climate dynamics
• Ocean dynamics.
• Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system

Cited in

(4)

• Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a conceptual climate model
• The role of conceptual models in climate research
• Bifurcation analysis of a conceptual model for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• Dynamics analysis of the Welander ocean model

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