Bayesian decision theory for tree-based adaptive screening tests with an application to youth delinquency

DOI10.1214/22-AOAS1657MaRDI QIDQ6104091zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Chelsea Krantsevich, P. Richard Hahn, Yi Zheng, Charles Katz

Publication date 5 June 2023

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.10364

zbMATH Keywords

risk assessmentcomputerized adaptive testingBayesian decision theoryclassification treesrisk factorscomputerized adaptive diagnostics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics (62Pxx)

Abstract: Crime prevention strategies based on early intervention depend on accurate risk assessment instruments for identifying high risk youth. It is important in this context that the instruments be convenient to administer, which means, in particular, that they should also be reasonably brief; adaptive screening tests are useful for this purpose. Adaptive tests constructed using classification and regression trees are becoming a popular alternative to traditional Item Response Theory (IRT) approaches for adaptive testing. However, tree-based adaptive tests lack a principled criterion for terminating the test. This paper develops a Bayesian decision theory framework for measuring the trade-off between brevity and accuracy, when considering tree-based adaptive screening tests of different lengths. We also present a novel method for designing tree-based adaptive tests, motivated by this framework. The framework and associated adaptive test method are demonstrated through an application to youth delinquency risk assessment in Honduras; it is shown that an adaptive test requiring a subject to answer fewer than 10 questions can identify high risk youth nearly as accurately as an unabridged survey containing 173 items.

Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3860199 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1753143 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 947414 (Why is no real title available?)
• An algorithm for removing sensitive information: application to race-independent recidivism prediction
• Bayesian Gaussian Copula Factor Models for Mixed Data
• Decision Theory
• Decoupling shrinkage and selection in Bayesian linear models: a posterior summary perspective
• Item selection in multidimensional computerized adaptive testing-gaining information from different angles
• Log-linear Bayesian additive regression trees for multinomial logistic and count regression models
• Model Interpretation Through Lower-Dimensional Posterior Summarization
• Post-processing posteriors over precision matrices to produce sparse graph estimates
• Psychometrics behind computerized adaptive testing
• Random forests
• Variable selection in seemingly unrelated regressions with random predictors

This page was built for publication: Bayesian decision theory for tree-based adaptive screening tests with an application to youth delinquency

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q6104091)