Analysis of metapopulation models of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

DOI10.1007/S00285-023-01948-YMaRDI QIDQ6116334zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors MyVan Vo, Zhilan Feng, John Glasser, Kristie E. N. Clarke, Jefferson N. Jones

Publication date 18 July 2023

Published in Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01948-y

zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19 in the united statesoptimal vaccination strategiesreproduction numbers and related expressionsSARS-CoV-2 transmissionSEIR metapopulation modeling

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Mathematical geography and demography (91D20) Medical epidemiology (92C60) Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

This paper proposed a COVID-19 mathematical model including asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic infections, and the intrinsic and realized reproduction numbers were obtained. Using this model and the corresponding results, the authors use parameter values with which this model reproduces seroprevalence reasonably well during the fall of 2020 and spring of 2021, they also compare results of simulated transmission during that period with the actual vaccination strategy and two alternatives.

Recommendations

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Cites work

• A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
• An elaboration of theory about preventing outbreaks in homogeneous populations to include heterogeneity or preferential mixing
• Analysis of serological surveys of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States to estimate parameters needed for transmission modeling and to evaluate and improve the accuracy of predictions
• Epidemiological models for heterogeneous populations: Proportionate mixing, parameter estimation, and immunization programs
• Evaluating targeted interventions via meta-population models with multi-level mixing
• Influence of demographically-realistic mortality schedules on vaccination strategies in age-structured models
• Modelling Biological Populations in Space and Time
• Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission

Cited in

(7)

• Analysis of serological surveys of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States to estimate parameters needed for transmission modeling and to evaluate and improve the accuracy of predictions
• Modeling local coronavirus outbreaks
• Impacts of vaccination and severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus disease 2019 transmission dynamics in four metropolitan areas of the United States
• Modeling impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics in St. Louis
• Mathematical assessment of the role of interventions against SARS-CoV-2
• Effect of demographic and seasonal variability on an influenza epidemic in a metapopulation model
• A comparison of alternative vaccination strategies for protecting those vulnerable to illness, hospitalization, or death upon infection with SARS-CoV-2

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