Towards a Bayesian Analysis of Migration Pathways Using Chain Event Graphs of Agent Based Models

DOI10.1007/978-3-031-16427-9_3MaRDI QIDQ6130508zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Jim Q. Smith

Publication date 3 April 2024

Published in Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.04368

zbMATH Keywords

applied statisticsconditional independencecontext-specific independenceprobabilistic graphical models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10) Empirical decision procedures; empirical Bayes procedures (62C12) Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Abstract: Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are often used to model migration and are increasingly used to simulate individual migrant decision-making and unfolding events through a sequence of heuristic if-then rules. However, ABMs lack the methods to embed more principled strategies of performing inference to estimate and validate the models, both of which are of significant importance for real-world case studies. Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) can fill this need: they can be used to provide a Bayesian framework which represents an ABM accurately. Through the use of the CEG, we illustrate how to transform an elicited ABM into a Bayesian framework and outline the benefits of this approach.

Cites work

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Cited in

(1)

• Bayesian graphs of intelligent causation

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