A Spatial Variance‐Smoothing Area Level Model for Small Area Estimation of Demographic Rates

DOI10.1111/INSR.12556arXiv2209.02602OpenAlexW4387730763MaRDI QIDQ6131431FDOQ6131431

Authors: Peter A. Gao, Jon Wakefield 

Publication date: 5 April 2024

Published in: International Statistical Review (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted estimates of small area proportions may be unreliable. Area level models treating these direct estimates as response data can improve precision but often require known sampling variances of the direct estimators for all areas. In practice, the sampling variances are typically estimated, so standard approaches do not account for a key source of uncertainty. In order to account for variability in the estimated sampling variances, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian spatial area level model that smooths both the estimated means and sampling variances to produce point and interval estimates of small area proportions. Our model explicitly targets estimation of small area proportions rather than means of continuous variables and we consider examples of both moderate and low prevalence events. We demonstrate the performance of our approach via simulation and application to vaccination coverage and HIV prevalence data from the Demographic and Health Surveys.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.02602

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian statisticsspatial statisticssmall area estimationsurvey statisticsarea level model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Parametric inference (62Fxx) Linear inference, regression (62Jxx) Statistical sampling theory and related topics (62Dxx)

Cites Work

• Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics (with discussion)
• Model assisted survey sampling.
• An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach
• Space-time smoothing of complex survey data: small area estimation for child mortality
• Small area estimation
• New important developments in small area estimation
• Introduction to variance estimation
• Small area estimation: the EBLUP estimator based on spatially correlated random area effects
• Generalized Linear Models for Small-Area Estimation
• The Mean Squared Error of Small Area Predictors Constructed With Estimated Area Variances
• Small area estimation using unmatched sampling and linking models
• Estimation of mean square error of empirical best linear unbiased predictors under a random error variance linear model
• Small area estimation via unmatched sampling and linking models
• A generalised semiparametric Bayesian Fay-Herriot model for small area estimation shrinking both means and variances
• Prediction error of small area predictors shrinking both means and variances
• Bayesian estimators for small area models shrinking both means and variances
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals Shrinking Both Means and Variances
• Arc-Sin Transformation for Binomial Sample Proportions in Small Area Estimation

This page was built for publication: A Spatial Variance‐Smoothing Area Level Model for Small Area Estimation of Demographic Rates

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q6131431)