Nonlinear dynamic analysis of an epidemiological model for COVID-19 including public behavior and government action

DOI10.1007/S11071-020-05815-ZzbMATH Open1517.92035arXiv2006.09530OpenAlexW3102985414WikidataQ98660021 ScholiaQ98660021MaRDI QIDQ6132348FDOQ6132348

F. Nazari, Xun Jiao, C. Nataraj, Cedrick A. Kitio Kwuimy, Pejman Rohani

Publication date: 16 August 2023

Published in: Nonlinear Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as a basis to explore the nonlinear behavior. We use a nonlinear SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious & Removed) transmission model with added behavioral and government policy dynamics. We develop a genetic algorithm technique to identify key model parameters employing COVID19 data from South Korea. Stability, bifurcations and dynamic behavior are analyzed. Parametric analysis reveals conditions for sustained epidemic equilibria to occur. This work points to the value of nonlinear dynamic analysis in pandemic modeling and demonstrates the dramatic influence of social and government behavior on disease dynamics.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.09530

zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19epidemiologySEIR modelnonlinear dynamics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Control problems involving ordinary differential equations (34H05) Pest management (92D45)

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Cited In (7)

• Bifurcation and stability of a delayed SIS epidemic model with saturated incidence and treatment rates in heterogeneous networks
• Evolutionary game dynamics and the phase portrait diversity in a pandemic scenario
• Bifurcation analysis of a SEIR epidemic system with governmental action and individual reaction
• Transmission dynamics of fractional order yellow virus in red chili plants with the Caputo-Fabrizio operator
• Dynamics of SEIR epidemic model by optimal auxiliary functions method
• Modeling the transmission of second‐wave COVID‐19 caused by imported cases: A case study
• Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for omicron strain

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