Nonlinear dynamic analysis of an epidemiological model for COVID-19 including public behavior and government action

DOI10.1007/S11071-020-05815-ZMaRDI QIDQ6132348zbMATHOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Cedrick A. Kitio Kwuimy, F. Nazari, Xun Jiao, Pejman Rohani, C. Nataraj

Publication date 16 August 2023

Published in Nonlinear Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.09530

zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19epidemiologySEIR modelnonlinear dynamics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Control problems involving ordinary differential equations (34H05) Pest management (92D45)

Abstract: This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as a basis to explore the nonlinear behavior. We use a nonlinear SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious & Removed) transmission model with added behavioral and government policy dynamics. We develop a genetic algorithm technique to identify key model parameters employing COVID19 data from South Korea. Stability, bifurcations and dynamic behavior are analyzed. Parametric analysis reveals conditions for sustained epidemic equilibria to occur. This work points to the value of nonlinear dynamic analysis in pandemic modeling and demonstrates the dramatic influence of social and government behavior on disease dynamics.

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Cited in

(7)

• Bifurcation analysis of a SEIR epidemic system with governmental action and individual reaction
• Bifurcation and stability of a delayed SIS epidemic model with saturated incidence and treatment rates in heterogeneous networks
• Dynamics of SEIR epidemic model by optimal auxiliary functions method
• Transmission dynamics of fractional order yellow virus in red chili plants with the Caputo-Fabrizio operator
• Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for omicron strain
• Modeling the transmission of second‐wave COVID‐19 caused by imported cases: A case study
• Evolutionary game dynamics and the phase portrait diversity in a pandemic scenario

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