A fractional-order SEIHDR model for COVID-19 with inter-city networked coupling effects

DOI10.1007/S11071-020-05848-4zbMATH Open1517.92037arXiv2004.12308OpenAlexW3046939210WikidataQ98660030 ScholiaQ98660030MaRDI QIDQ6132352FDOQ6132352

Zhen-Zhen Lu, Zhe Yin, Conghui Xu, Shuhui Wang, Guojian Ren, Yangquan Chen, Yongguang Yu

Publication date: 16 August 2023

Published in: Nonlinear Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to analyze the dynamic behavior of COVID-19. Based on inter-city networked coupling effects, a fractional-order SEIHDR system with the real-data from 23 January to 18 March, 2020 of COVID-19 is discussed. Meanwhile, hospitalized individuals and the mortality rates of three types of individuals (exposed, infected and hospitalized) are firstly taken into account in the proposed model. And infectivity of individuals during incubation is also considered in this paper. By applying least squares method and predictor-correctors scheme, the numerical solutions of the proposed system in the absence of the inter-city network and with the inter-city network are stimulated by using the real-data from 23 January to $18-m$ March, 2020 where $m$ is equal to the number of prediction days. Compared with integer-order system ($alpha=0$), the fractional-order model without network is validated to have a better fitting of the data on Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Huanggang and other cities. In contrast to the case without network, the results indicate that the inter-city network system may be not a significant case to virus spreading for China because of the lock down and quarantine measures, however, it may have an impact on cities that have not adopted city closure. Meanwhile, the proposed model better fits the data from 24 February to 31, March in Italy, and the peak number of confirmed people is also predicted by this fraction-order model. Furthermore, the existence and uniqueness of a bounded solution under the initial condition are considered in the proposed system. Afterwards, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is analyzed and it is found to hold a threshold: the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when $R_{0}le1$, which provides a theoretical basis for whether COVID-19 will become a pandemic in the future.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12308

zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19fractional-orderinter-city networked coupling effectsSEIHDR epidemic model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Fractional ordinary differential equations (34A08)

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Cited In (12)

• Analysis of an improved fractional-order model of boundary formation in the Drosophila large intestine dependent on delta-notch pathway
• The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation
• Dynamics of fractional plant virus propagation model with influence of seasonality and intraspecific competition
• Robust normalization and stabilization of descriptor fractional-order systems with polytopic uncertainties in all matrices
• Dynamical analysis of a fractional order HCV infection model with acute and chronic and general incidence rate
• Optimal control and bifurcation analysis of a delayed fractional-order SIRS model with general incidence rate and delayed control
• A class of anomalous diffusion epidemic models based on CTRW and distributed delay
• A case study of 2019‐nCoV in Russia using integer and fractional order derivatives
• Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19: a study of new variant omicron
• Bifurcation Analysis of a Fractional-Order Simplicial SIRS System Induced by Double Delays
• Fractional model for the spread of COVID-19 subject to government intervention and public perception
• Interconnected Takagi-Sugeno system and fractional SIRS malware propagation model for stabilization of wireless sensor networks

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