Dynamical analysis of the infection status in diverse communities due to COVID-19 using a modified SIR model

DOI10.1007/S11071-022-07347-0MaRDI QIDQ6132661zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors

Publication date 17 August 2023

Published in Nonlinear Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.07077

zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19 pandemicepidemic SIR modelinfectious-diseasemodel-based forecastingmodeling

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Simulation of dynamical systems (37M05) Dynamical systems in biology (37N25) Medical applications (general) (92C50) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and COVID-19 India websites from April 2020 to July 2021, including periods of interest where these countries and states were hit severely by the pandemic. Our methodology is based on the classic susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and can track the evolution of infections in communities, where we (a) allow for the susceptible and infected populations to be reset at times where surges, outbreaks or secondary waves appear in the recorded data sets, (b) consider the parameters in the SIR model that represent the effective transmission and recovery rates to be functions of time and (c) estimate the number of deaths by combining the model solutions with the recorded data sets to approximate them between consecutive surges, outbreaks or secondary waves, providing a more accurate estimate. We report on the status of the current infections in these countries and states, and the infections and deaths in India and Japan. Our model can adapt to the recorded data and can be used to explain them and importantly, to forecast the number of infected, recovered, removed and dead individuals, as well as it can estimate the effective infection and recovery rates as functions of time, assuming an outbreak occurs at a given time. The latter can be used to forecast the future reproduction number and together with the forecast on the number of infected and dead individuals, our approach can be used to suggest the implementation of intervention strategies and mitigation policies to keep at bay the number of infected and dead individuals. This can help reduce the impact of the spread around the world and improve the wellbeing of people.

Cites work

• Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France
• Exact analytical solutions of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model and of the SIR model with equal death and birth rates
• Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models
• Mathematical modeling and analysis for controlling the spread of infectious diseases
• Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan
• Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom
• The mathematics of infectious diseases

Cited in

(3)

• Inversion of a SIR-based model: a critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
• Modeling COVID-19 in Cape Verde Islands -- an application of SIR model
• Dynamic Analysis of SLIR Model Describing the Effectiveness of Quarantine Against the Spread of COVID-19

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