Multi-patch epidemic models with general exposed and infectious periods

DOI10.1051/PS/2023003MaRDI QIDQ6133916zbMATHOpenAlexFDO

Authors Guodong Pang, Etienne Pardoux

Publication date 21 August 2023

Published in ESAIM: Probability and Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14412

zbMATH Keywords

FCLTSEIR modelmigrationPoisson random measureFLLNgeneral infectious (andlatent) periodsmulti-dimensional (stochastic) Volterra integral equationsmulti-patch SIRor exposing

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Functional limit theorems; invariance principles (60F17) Volterra integral equations (45D05) Stochastic integrals (60H05)

Abstract: We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that depends on the patch as well as "from distance" from all the other patches. The exposed and infectious periods have general distributions, and are not affected by the possible migrations of the individuals. The migration processes in either of the three states are assumed to be Markovian, and independent of the exposed and infectious periods. We establish a functional law of large number (FLLN) and a function central limit theorem (FCLT) for the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered processes. In the FLLN, the limit is determined by a set of Volterra integral equations. In the special case of deterministic exposed and infectious periods, the limit becomes a system of ODEs with delays. In the FCLT, the limit is given by a set of stochastic Volterra integral equations driven by a sum of independent Brownian motions and continuous Gaussian processes with an explicit covariance structure.

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• PDE model for multi-patch epidemic models with migration and infection-age dependent infectivity
• Multi-patch multi-group epidemic model with varying infectivity
• General epidemiological models: law of large numbers and contact tracing
• Generalized SEIR epidemic model for COVID-19 in a multipatch environment
• Functional central limit theorems for epidemic models with varying infectivity
• Multi-patch and multi-group epidemic models: a new framework

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