Multi-patch epidemic models with general exposed and infectious periods

DOI10.1051/PS/2023003zbMATH Open1518.92157arXiv2006.14412OpenAlexW3216390267MaRDI QIDQ6133916FDOQ6133916

Authors: Guodong Pang, Etienne Pardoux 

Publication date: 21 August 2023

Published in: ESAIM: Probability and Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that depends on the patch as well as "from distance" from all the other patches. The exposed and infectious periods have general distributions, and are not affected by the possible migrations of the individuals. The migration processes in either of the three states are assumed to be Markovian, and independent of the exposed and infectious periods. We establish a functional law of large number (FLLN) and a function central limit theorem (FCLT) for the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered processes. In the FLLN, the limit is determined by a set of Volterra integral equations. In the special case of deterministic exposed and infectious periods, the limit becomes a system of ODEs with delays. In the FCLT, the limit is given by a set of stochastic Volterra integral equations driven by a sum of independent Brownian motions and continuous Gaussian processes with an explicit covariance structure.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14412

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zbMATH Keywords

FCLTSEIR modelmigrationPoisson random measureFLLNgeneral infectious (andlatent) periodsmulti-dimensional (stochastic) Volterra integral equationsmulti-patch SIRor exposing

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Functional limit theorems; invariance principles (60F17) Volterra integral equations (45D05) Stochastic integrals (60H05)

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• Multi-patch and multi-group epidemic models: a new framework
• Functional central limit theorems for epidemic models with varying infectivity
• PDE model for multi-patch epidemic models with migration and infection-age dependent infectivity
• Multi-patch multi-group epidemic model with varying infectivity
• Generalized SEIR epidemic model for COVID-19 in a multipatch environment
• Functional limit theorems for non-Markovian epidemic models

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