Mobility and the spatial spread of \textsc{Sars}-\textsc{CoV}-2 in Belgium

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2022.108957MaRDI QIDQ6133972zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Michiel Rollier, Gisele H. B. Miranda, Jenna Vergeynst, Joris Meys, Tijs W. Alleman, the Belgian Collaborative Group on \textsc{covid}-19 Hospital Surveillance, J. M. Baetens

Publication date 25 July 2023

Published in Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.11528

zbMATH Keywords

epidemiologytime series analysismobility\textsc{Covid}-19generalised additive mixed model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: We analyse and mutually compare time series of COVID-19-related data and mobility data across Belgium's 43 arrondissements (NUTS 3). In this way, we reach three conclusions. First, we could detect a decrease in mobility during high-incidence stages of the pandemic. This is expressed as a significant change in the average amount of time spent outside one's home arrondissement, investigated over five distinct periods, and in more detail using an inter-arrondissement ``connectivity index (CI). Second, we analyse spatio-temporal COVID-19-related hospitalisation time series, after smoothing them using a generalise additive mixed model (GAMM). We confirm that some arrondissements are ahead of others and morphologically dissimilar to others, in terms of epidemiological progression. The tools used to quantify this are time-lagged cross-correlation (TLCC) and dynamic time warping (DTW), respectively. Third, we demonstrate that an arrondissement's CI with one of the three identified first-outbreak arrondissements is correlated to a significant local excess mortality some five to six weeks after the first outbreak. More generally, we couple results leading to the first and second conclusion, in order to demonstrate an overall correlation between CI values on the one hand, and TLCC and DTW values on the other. We conclude that there is a strong correlation between physical movement of people and viral spread in the early stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Belgium, though its strength weakens as the virus spreads

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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6734253 (Why is no real title available?)
• Alignment of curves by dynamic time warping
• Analysis of detrended time-lagged cross-correlation between two nonstationary time series
• Flexible smoothing with \(B\)-splines and penalties. With comments and a rejoinder by the authors
• Some asymptotic results on generalized penalized spline smoothing

Cited in

(5)

• Mobility zones
• Anomaly detection of mobile positioning data with applications to COVID-19 situational awareness
• Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence?
• The role of mobility in the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Andalusia
• Clustering patterns connecting COVID-19 dynamics and human mobility using optimal transport

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