Autoregressive mixture models for clustering time series
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Publication:6134638
Abstract: Clustering time series into similar groups can improve models by combining information across like time series. While there is a well developed body of literature for clustering of time series, these approaches tend to generate clusters independently of model training which can lead to poor model fit. We propose a novel distributed approach that simultaneously clusters and fits autoregression models for groups of similar individuals. We apply a Wishart mixture model so as to cluster individuals while modeling the corresponding autocovariance matrices at the same time. The fitted Wishart scale matrices map to cluster-level autoregressive coefficients through the Yule-Walker equations, fitting robust parsimonious autoregressive mixture models. This approach is able to discern differences in underlying autocorrelation variation of time series in settings with large heterogeneous datasets. We prove consistency of our cluster membership estimator, asymptotic distributions of coefficients and compare our approach against competing methods through simulation as well as by fitting a COVID-19 forecast model.
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Cited in
(4)- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 2033195 (Why is no real title available?)
- An Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Time Series Clustering of Processes with Regime Transition Behavior
- Temporal clustering of time series via threshold autoregressive models: application to commodity prices
- Time series clustering based on latent volatility mixture modeling with applications in finance
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