Asymptotic behavior of an epidemic model with infinitely many variants

DOI10.1007/S00285-023-01975-9zbMATH Open1523.34049arXiv2305.05699MaRDI QIDQ6135899FDOQ6135899

J.-B. Burie, Quentin Griette, Arnaud Ducrot

Publication date: 28 August 2023

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with infinitely many pathogen variants infecting a homogeneous host population. We show that the basic reproduction number $mathcal{R}_0$ of the pathogen can be defined in that case and corresponds to a threshold between the persistence ($mathcal{R}_0>1$) and the extinction ($mathcal{R}_{0}leq1$) of the pathogen. When $mathcal{R}_0>1$ and the maximal fitness is attained by at least one variant, we show that the systems reaches an equilibrium state that can be explicitly determined from the initial data. When $mathcal{R}_0>1$ but none of the variants attain the maximal fitness, the situation is more intricate. We show that, in general, the pathogen is uniformly persistent and any family of variants that have a fitness which is uniformly lower than the optimal fitness, eventually gets extinct. We derive a condition under which the total pathogen population converges to a limit which can be computed explicitly. We also find counterexamples that show that, when our condition is not met, the total pathogen population may converge to an unexpected value, or the system can even reach an eternally transient behavior where the total pathogen population between several values. We illustrate our results with numerical simulations that emphasize the wide variety of possible dynamics.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.05699

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zbMATH Keywords

asymptotic behaviorordinary differential equationspopulation dynamicsinfinite dynamical system

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Asymptotic properties of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D05)

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Cited In (1)

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