Forward hysteresis and Hopf bifurcation in an NPZD model with application to harmful algal blooms

DOI10.1007/S00285-023-01969-7MaRDI QIDQ6135910zbMATHOpenAlexFDO

Authors Joshua C. Macdonald, Hayriye Gulbudak

Publication date 28 August 2023

Published in Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.06234

zbMATH Keywords

eutrophicationplankton population dynamicsharmful algal bloomsreoligotrophication

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Ecology (92D40) Linear ordinary differential equations and systems (34A30)

Abstract: Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) models, describing the interactions between phytoplankton, zooplankton systems, and their ecosystem, are used to predict their ecological and evolutionary population dynamics. These organisms form the base two trophic levels of aquatic ecosystems. Hence understanding their population dynamics and how disturbances can affect these systems is crucial. Here, starting from a base NPZ modeling framework, we incorporate the harmful effects of phytoplankton overpopulation on zooplankton - representing a crucial next step in harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling - and split the nutrient compartment to formulate an NPZD model. We then mathematically analyze the NPZ system upon which this new model is based, including local and global stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation condition, and forward hysteresis, where the bi-stability occurs with multiple attractors. Finally, we extend the threshold analysis to the NPZD model, which displays both forward hysteresis with bi-stability and Hopf bifurcation under different parameter regimes, and examine ecological implications after incorporating seasonality and ecological disturbances. Ultimately, we quantify ecosystem health in terms of the relative values of the robust persistence thresholds for phytoplankton and zooplankton and find (i) ecosystems sufficiently favoring phytoplankton, as quantified by the relative values of the plankton persistence numbers, are vulnerable to both HABs and (local) zooplankton extinction (ii) even healthy ecosystems are extremely sensitive to nutrient depletion over relatively short time scales.

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Cites work

• A closed NPZ model with delayed nutrient recycling
• Criterion of Hopf bifurcations without using eigenvalues
• Dynamical systems and population persistence
• Forward hysteresis and backward bifurcation caused by culling in an avian influenza model
• Infection severity across scales in multi-strain immuno-epidemiological dengue model structured by host antibody level
• Robust uniform persistence in discrete and continuous dynamical systems using Lyapunov exponents
• The dynamics of a model of a plankton-nutrient interaction
• Theoretical analysis and optimization of nonlinear ODE systems for marine ecosystem models

Cited in

(4)

• Stochastic dynamics of a plankton model with zooplankton selectivity and nutritional value of phytoplankton
• Hopf bifurcation in coastal ecogeosystems
• Stability and bifurcation behaviors analysis in a nonlinear harmful algal dynamical model
• Regime shift in a phytoplankton-phosphorus model with vertical structure and seasonality

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