Virus dynamics with behavioral responses

DOI10.1016/J.JET.2023.105739MaRDI QIDQ6139969zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Krishna Dasaratha

Publication date 19 January 2024

Published in Journal of Economic Theory (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.14533

zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19SIRepidemicssocial distancingrisk compensation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from economic activity, but activity involves interactions with potentially infected individuals. The main focus is a theoretical analysis of contagion dynamics and behavioral responses to changes in risk. We obtain a simple condition for when public-health interventions or variants of a disease will have paradoxical effects on infection rates due to risk compensation. Behavioral responses are most likely to undermine public-health interventions near the peak of severe diseases.

Recommendations

• Dynamics of SIR model with heterogeneous response to intervention policy
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Cites work

• A mathematical analysis of public avoidance behavior during epidemics using game theory
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Cited in

(2)

• SIR dynamics with economically driven contact rates
• Modelling the impact of precaution on disease dynamics and its evolution

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