Virus dynamics with behavioral responses
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Publication:6139969
DOI10.1016/J.JET.2023.105739arXiv2004.14533OpenAlexW3121651039MaRDI QIDQ6139969FDOQ6139969
Publication date: 19 January 2024
Published in: Journal of Economic Theory (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from economic activity, but activity involves interactions with potentially infected individuals. The main focus is a theoretical analysis of contagion dynamics and behavioral responses to changes in risk. We obtain a simple condition for when public-health interventions or variants of a disease will have paradoxical effects on infection rates due to risk compensation. Behavioral responses are most likely to undermine public-health interventions near the peak of severe diseases.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.14533
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