Delay differential equations for the spatially resolved simulation of epidemics with specific application to COVID‐19

DOI10.1002/MMA.8068zbMATH Open1530.92228arXiv2103.01102OpenAlexW4206417931MaRDI QIDQ6141512FDOQ6141512

Alex Viguerie, Nicola Guglielmi, Elisa Iacomini

Publication date: 19 December 2023

Published in: Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In the wake of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic, much work has been performed on the development of mathematical models for the simulation of the epidemic, and of disease models generally. Most works follow the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) compartmental framework, modeling the epidemic with a system of ordinary differential equations. Alternative formulations using a partial differential equation (PDE) to incorporate both spatial and temporal resolution have also been introduced, with their numerical results showing potentially powerful descriptive and predictive capacity. In the present work, we introduce a new variation to such models by using delay differential equations (DDEs). The dynamics of many infectious diseases, including COVID-19, exhibit delays due to incubation periods and related phenomena. Accordingly, DDE models allow for a natural representation of the problem dynamics, in addition to offering advantages in terms of computational time and modeling, as they eliminate the need for additional, difficult-to-estimate, compartments (such as exposed individuals) to incorporate time delays. Here, we introduce a DDE epidemic model in both an ordinary- and partial differential equation framework. We present a series of mathematical results assessing the stability of the formulation. We then perform several numerical experiments, validating both the mathematical results and establishing model's ability to reproduce measured data on realistic problems.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.01102

zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19epidemiologycompartmental modelspartial differential equationsstability analysisdelay differential equations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Stability in context of PDEs (35B35) Stability theory of functional-differential equations (34K20)

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Cited In (12)

• Dynamical analysis of a COVID-19 model with human-to-human and environment-to-human transmissions and distributed delays
• On the dynamics of a Riccati differential equation with perturbed delay
• Asymptotic-preserving neural networks for hyperbolic systems with diffusive scaling
• A time delay dynamic system with external source for the local outbreak of 2019-nCoV
• Learning delay dynamics for multivariate stochastic processes, with application to the prediction of the growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the United States
• A data-validated temporary immunity model of COVID-19 spread in Michigan
• On stability for non-instantaneous impulsive delay differential equations
• New trends on the systems approach to modeling SARS-CoV-2 pandemics in a globally connected planet
• Model-based reinforcement learning control of reaction-diffusion problems
• Exact solutions of time-delay integer- and fractional-order advection equations
• A delay differential equation model on COVID-19 with vaccination strategy
• Identification of time delays in COVID-19 data

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