Vaccination compartmental epidemiological models for the delta and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2023.109109MaRDI QIDQ6154140zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors J. Cuevas, Panayotis G. Kevrekidis, Qian-Yong Chen, G. A. Kevrekidis, Yannis Drossinos

Publication date 14 February 2024

Published in Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.10656

zbMATH Keywords

delta variantepidemiological modelomicron variantSARS-CoV-2vaccination

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Medical epidemiology (92C60)

Abstract: We explore the inclusion of vaccination in compartmental epidemiological models concerning the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. We expand on our earlier compartmental-model work by incorporating vaccinated populations. We present two classes of models that differ depending on the immunological properties of the variant. The first one is for the delta variant, where we do not follow the dynamics of the vaccinated individuals since infections of vaccinated individuals were rare. The second one for the far more contagious omicron variant incorporates the evolution of the infections within the vaccinated cohort. We explore comparisons with available data involving two possible classes of counts, fatalities and hospitalizations. We present our results for two regions, Andalusia and Switzerland (including the Principality of Liechtenstein), where the necessary data are available. In the majority of the considered cases, the models are found to yield good agreement with the data and have a reasonable predictive capability beyond their training window, rendering them potentially useful tools for the interpretation of the COVID-19 and further pandemic waves, and for the design of intervention strategies during these waves.

Recommendations

• Impacts of vaccination and severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus disease 2019 transmission dynamics in four metropolitan areas of the United States
• Modelling the effect of virulent variants with SIR
• Mathematical models and simulations of different scenarios of COVID-19 in Brazil
• Modeling the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines on the spread of COVID-19
• Mutations make pandemics worse or better: modeling SARS-CoV-2 variants and imperfect vaccination

Cites work

• A reaction-diffusion system to better comprehend the unlockdown: application of SEIR-type model with diffusion to the spatial spread of COVID-19 in France
• Computing all identifiable functions of parameters for ODE models
• Differential Elimination for Dynamical Models via Projections with Applications to Structural Identifiability
• Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern: theory and simulations
• Global identifiability of differential models
• Identifiability and estimation of multiple transmission pathways in cholera and waterborne disease
• Lockdown measures and their impact on single- and two-age-structured epidemic model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico
• Malaria and COVID-19 co-dynamics: a mathematical model and optimal control
• Mathematical modelling of acute virus influenza A infections
• Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology
• Optimal vaccination strategies using a distributed model applied to COVID-19
• Simulating the spread of COVID-19 \textit{via} a spatially-resolved susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model with heterogeneous diffusion
• The mathematics of infectious diseases
• The role of mobility in the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Andalusia

Cited in

(5)

• Impacts of vaccination and severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus disease 2019 transmission dynamics in four metropolitan areas of the United States
• Potential severity, mitigation, and control of Omicron waves depending on pre-existing immunity and immune evasion
• A constrained optimisation framework for parameter identification of the SIRD model
• Compartmental models in epidemiology: bridging the gap with operations research for enhanced epidemic control
• Mathematical modeling shows that overall infection burden is reduced more by vaccines that decrease spread or accelerate recovery than those that lower severe infections or death

This page was built for publication: Vaccination compartmental epidemiological models for the delta and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q6154140)