Simulation-based decision making in the NFL using nflsimulator

DOI10.1007/S10479-022-04524-7MaRDI QIDQ6170916zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Benjamin Williams, Will Palmquist, Ryan Elmore

Publication date 13 July 2023

Published in Annals of Operations Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01846

zbMATH Keywords

analyticsnational football leaguesports statistics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics (62-XX) Statistical sampling theory and related topics (62Dxx)

Abstract: In this paper, we introduce an R software package for simulating plays and drives using play-by-play data from the National Football League. The simulations are generated by sampling play-by-play data from previous football seasons.The sampling procedure adds statistical rigor to any decisions or inferences arising from examining the simulations. We highlight that the package is particularly useful as a data-driven tool for evaluating potential in-game strategies or rule changes within the league. We demonstrate its utility by evaluating the oft-debated strategy of $extitgoingforit$ on fourth down and investigating whether or not teams should pass more than the current standard.

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Cites work

• Sampling: design and analysis

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