Counterfactual Reasoning and Learning Systems

MaRDI QIDQ6235584arXivFDO

Authors Léon Bottou, Jonas Peters, Joaquin Quiñonero-Candela, Denis Xavier Charles, D. Max Chickering, Elon Portugaly, Dipankar Ray, Patrice Y. Simard, Ed Snelson

Publication date 11 September 2012

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Classification and discrimination; cluster analysis (statistical aspects) (62H30) Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts (62P30) Learning and adaptive systems in artificial intelligence (68T05) Parametric tolerance and confidence regions (62F25)

Abstract: This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and algorithms to select changes that improve both the short-term and long-term performance of such systems. This work is illustrated by experiments carried out on the ad placement system associated with the Bing search engine.

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