Asymptotics of randomly stopped sums in the presence of heavy tails

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Abstract: We study conditions under which P(Sau>x)simP(Mau>x)simEauP(xi1>x) as xoinfty, where Sau is a sum xi1+...+xiau of random size au and Mau is a maximum of partial sums Mau=maxnleauSn. Here xin, n=1, 2, ..., are independent identically distributed random variables whose common distribution is assumed to be subexponential. We consider mostly the case where au is independent of the summands; also, in a particular situation, we deal with a stopping time. Also we consider the case where Exi>0 and where the tail of au is comparable with or heavier than that of xi, and obtain the asymptotics P(Sau>x)simEauP(xi1>x)+P(au>x/Exi) as xoinfty. This case is of a primary interest in the branching processes. In addition, we obtain new uniform (in all x and n) upper bounds for the ratio P(Sn>x)/P(xi1>x) which substantially improve Kesten's bound in the subclass mathcalS of subexponential distributions.



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