Modeling the Ellsberg Paradox by Argument Strength

arXiv1703.03233MaRDI QIDQ6284115FDOQ6284115

Authors: Niki Pfeifer, Hanna Pankka 

Publication date: 9 March 2017

Abstract: We present a formal measure of argument strength, which combines the ideas that conclusions of strong arguments are (i) highly probable and (ii) their uncertainty is relatively precise. Likewise, arguments are weak when their conclusion probability is low or when it is highly imprecise. We show how the proposed measure provides a new model of the Ellsberg paradox. Moreover, we further substantiate the psychological plausibility of our approach by an experiment (N = 60). The data show that the proposed measure predicts human inferences in the original Ellsberg task and in corresponding argument strength tasks. Finally, we report qualitative data taken from structured interviews on folk psychological conceptions on what argument strength means.

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