A class of short-term models for the oil industry addressing speculative storage

arXiv2003.11790MaRDI QIDQ6337447FDOQ6337447

J.-M. Lasry, José A. Scheinkman, P.-L. Lions, Charles Bertucci, Antoine Rostand, Yves Achdou

Publication date: 26 March 2020

Abstract: This is a work in progress. The aim is to propose a plausible mechanism for the short term dynamics of the oil market based on the interaction of economic agents. This is a theoretical research which by no means aim at describing all the aspects of the oil market. In particular, we use the tools and terminology of game theory, but we do not claim that this game actually exists in the real world. In parallel, we are currently studying and calibrating a long term model for the oil industry, which addresses the interactions of a monopolists with a competitive fringe of small producers. It is the object of another paper that will be available soon. The present premiminary version does not contain all the economic arguments and all the connections with our long term model. It mostly addresses the description of the model, the equations and numerical simulations focused on the oil industry short term dynamics. A more complete version will be available soon.

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