Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate

arXiv2105.04267MaRDI QIDQ6367256FDOQ6367256

Meagan Carney, Matthew Nicol, Holger Kantz

Publication date: 10 May 2021

Abstract: Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum windspeeds. Since extremes in maximum windspeed have a direct relationship to minimums in the central pressure, accurate windspeed return estimates rely heavily on proper modeling of the central pressure minima. Using the HURDAT2 database, we show that the central pressure minima of hurricane events can be appropriately modeled by a nonstationary extreme value distribution. We also provide and validate a Poisson distribution with a nonstationary rate parameter to model returns of hurricane events. Using our nonstationary models and numerical simulation techniques from established literature, we perform a simulation study to model returns of maximum windspeeds of hurricane events along the North Atlantic Coast. We show that our revised model agrees with current data and results in an expectation of higher maximum windspeeds for all regions along the coast with the highest maximum windspeeds occurring in the northern part of the coast.

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