Quadrics in arithmetic statistics

Publication date 8 October 2021

Abstract: We (re)introduce the circle method into arithmetic statistics. More specifically, we combine the circle method with Bhargava's counting technique in order to give a general method that allows one to treat arithmetic statistical problems in which one is trying to count orbits on a subvariety of affine space defined by the vanishing of a quadratic invariant. We explain this method by way of example by computing the average size of

2

-Selmer groups in the families

y^{2} = x^{3} + B

and

y^{2} = x^{3} + B^{2}

. In the course of the argument we introduce a smoothed form of Bhargava's aforementioned method, as well as a trick with which we formally deduce that the above averages are

3

from knowledge of the averages over "unconstrained" families.

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