Subcritical epidemics on random graphs

MaRDI QIDQ6398489zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Oanh Nguyen, Allan Sly

Publication date 7 May 2022

Abstract: We study the contact process on random graphs with low infection rate $lambda$. For random $d$-regular graphs, it is known that the survival time is $O(logn)$ below the critical $lambd{a}_c$. By contrast, on the ErdH{o}s-R'enyi random graphs $mathcalG(n,d/n)$, rare high-degree vertices result in much longer survival times. We show that the survival time is governed by high-density local configurations. In particular, we show that there is a long string of high-degree vertices on which the infection lasts for time $n^{lambd{a}^{2+o(1)}}$. To establish a matching upper bound, we introduce a modified version of the contact process which ignores infections that do not lead to further infections and allows for a shaper recursive analysis on branching process trees, the local-weak limit of the graph. Our methods, moreover, generalize to random graphs with given degree distributions that have exponential moments.

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