Goal-Oriented A-Posteriori Estimation of Model Error as an Aid to Parameter Estimation
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Publication:6400564
DOI10.1016/J.JCP.2022.111575arXiv2205.15131MaRDI QIDQ6400564FDOQ6400564
Authors: Prashant Kumar Jha, J. Tinsley Oden 
Publication date: 30 May 2022
Abstract: In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class of computational models, it is possible to develop a computationally inexpensive procedure for calibrating parameters of high-fidelity models of physical events when the parameters of low-fidelity (surrogate) models are known with acceptable accuracy. The main ingredients in the proposed model calibration scheme are goal-oriented a-posteriori estimates of error in QoIs computed using a so-called lower fidelity model compared to those of an uncalibrated higher fidelity model. The estimates of error in QoIs are used to define likelihood functions in Bayesian inversion analysis. A standard Bayesian approach is employed to compute the posterior distribution of model parameters of high-fidelity models. As applications, parameters in a quasi-linear second-order elliptic boundary-value problem (BVP) are calibrated using a second-order linear elliptic BVP. In a second application, parameters of a tumor growth model involving nonlinear time-dependent PDEs are calibrated using a lower fidelity linear tumor growth model with known parameter values.
Numerical methods for partial differential equations, boundary value problems (65Nxx) Probabilistic methods, stochastic differential equations (65Cxx) Physiological, cellular and medical topics (92Cxx)
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