Bayesian hierarchical modeling for temperature reconstruction from geothermal data

DOI10.1214/10-AOAS452zbMATH Open1223.62173arXiv1107.4905MaRDI QIDQ641082FDOQ641082

Authors: Jenný Brynjarsdóttir, L. Mark Berliner 

Publication date: 21 October 2011

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to paleoclimate reconstruction using borehole temperature profiles. The approach relies on modeling heat conduction in solids via the heat equation with step function, surface boundary conditions. Our analysis includes model error and assumes that the boundary conditions are random processes. The formulation also enables separation of measurement error and model error. We apply the analysis to data from nine borehole temperature records from the San Rafael region in Utah. We produce ground surface temperature histories with uncertainty estimates for the past 400 years. We pay special attention to use of prior parameter models that illustrate borrowing strength in a combined analysis for all nine boreholes. In addition, we review selected sensitivity analyses.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1107.4905

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zbMATH Keywords

heat equationpaleoclimatesensitivity analysesboreholesborrowing strengthclimate proxiesphysical-statistical modeling

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts (62P30) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Geostatistics (86A32) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35)

Cites Work

• Spatiotemporal Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Tropical Ocean Surface Winds
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• The value of multiproxy reconstruction of past climate
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• Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. 2nd ed
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Cited In (7)

• A Bayesian multinomial regression model for palaeoclimate reconstruction with time uncertainty
• Discussion of “A Bayesian multinomial regression model for paleoclimate reconstruction with time uncertainty,” by Ilvonen et al.
• Statistical paleoclimate reconstructions via Markov random fields
• Quantifying age and model uncertainties in palaeoclimate data and dynamical climate models with a joint inferential analysis
• A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for reconstructing climate from multiple pollen records
• Finding a consensus on credible features among several paleoclimate reconstructions
• State-space model for proxy-based millennial reconstruction

Uses Software

• spBayes

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