Point process modeling of wildfire hazard in Los Angeles county, California
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Publication:641124
DOI10.1214/10-AOAS401zbMATH Open1223.62168arXiv1108.0754OpenAlexW3098882371WikidataQ117555989 ScholiaQ117555989MaRDI QIDQ641124FDOQ641124
Authors: Haiyong Xu, Frederic Paik Schoenberg 
Publication date: 21 October 2011
Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: The Burning Index (BI) produced daily by the United States government's National Fire Danger Rating System is commonly used in forecasting the hazard of wildfire activity in the United States. However, recent evaluations have shown the BI to be less effective at predicting wildfires in Los Angeles County, compared to simple point process models incorporating similar meteorological information. Here, we explore the forecasting power of a suite of more complex point process models that use seasonal wildfire trends, daily and lagged weather variables, and historical spatial burn patterns as covariates, and that interpolate the records from different weather stations. Results are compared with models using only the BI. The performance of each model is compared by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), as well as by the power in predicting wildfires in the historical data set and residual analysis. We find that multiplicative models that directly use weather variables offer substantial improvement in fit compared to models using only the BI, and, in particular, models where a distinct spatial bandwidth parameter is estimated for each weather station appear to offer substantially improved fit.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0754
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Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) (60G55) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)
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Cited In (12)
- Voronoi residual analysis of spatial point process models with applications to California earthquake forecasts
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- Spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian analysis of wildfires with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations. A case study from Valencian Community (Spain)
- Wildfire prediction to inform fire management: statistical science challenges
- County‐level analysis of the impact of temperature and population increases on California wildfire data
- Multifractal point processes and the spatial distribution of wildfires in French Mediterranean regions
- A Space–Time Conditional Intensity Model for Evaluating a Wildfire Hazard Index
- Modeling wildfire ignition origins in southern California using linear network point processes
- Normal approximation for fire incident simulation using permanental Cox processes
- Spatiotemporal wildfire modeling through point processes with moderate and extreme marks
- Fire seasonality identification with multimodality tests
- Enhancing the SPDE modeling of spatial point processes with INLA, applied to wildfires. Choosing the best mesh for each database
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