The mortality of the Italian population: smoothing techniques on the Lee-Carter model
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Publication:641126
DOI10.1214/10-AOAS394zbMATH Open1223.62171arXiv1108.0766MaRDI QIDQ641126FDOQ641126
Authors: Valeria D'Amato, Gabriella Piscopo, Maria Russolillo 
Publication date: 21 October 2011
Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of the mortality intensity. Hyndman-Ullah show a particular version of the Lee-Carter methodology, the so-called Functional Demographic Model, which is one of the most accurate approaches as regards some mortality data, particularly for longer forecast horizons where the benefit of a damped trend forecast is greater. The paper objective is properly to single out the most suitable model between the basic Lee-Carter and the Functional Demographic Model to the Italian mortality data. A comparative assessment is made and the empirical results are presented using a range of graphical analyses.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0766
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Cited In (16)
- Coherent modeling of male and female mortality using Lee-Carter in a complex number framework
- A comparison of the Lee-Carter model and AR-ARCH model for forecasting mortality rates
- Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting: an application to annuity pricing
- On Smoothing Trends in Population Index Modeling
- Forecasting mortality in subpopulations using Lee-Carter type models: a comparison
- Dynamical functional prediction and classification, with application to traffic flow prediction
- A quantitative comparison of stochastic mortality models on Italian population data
- Selecting stochastic mortality models for the Italian population
- Depth-based reconstruction method for incomplete functional data
- A random forest algorithm to improve the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: impact on q-forward
- Computational framework for longevity risk management
- Integrated Depths for Partially Observed Functional Data
- Modeling and forecasting duration-dependent mortality rates
- Using the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data*
- Mortality Forecasting and Trend Shifts: an Application of the Lee-Carter Model to Swedish Mortality Data*
- Comparing mortality trends via Lee-Carter method in the framework of multidimensional data analysis
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