The effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival: correcting for healthy performer survivor bias with a rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model

DOI10.1214/10-AOAS424zbMATH Open1223.62172arXiv1108.0822OpenAlexW3104253532MaRDI QIDQ641129FDOQ641129

Authors: Dylan S. Small, Dean P. Foster, X. Han, Vishal M. Patel 

Publication date: 21 October 2011

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study the causal effect of winning an Oscar Award on an actor or actress's survival. Does the increase in social rank from a performer winning an Oscar increase the performer's life expectancy? Previous studies of this issue have suffered from healthy performer survivor bias, that is, candidates who are healthier will be able to act in more films and have more chance to win Oscar Awards. To correct this bias, we adapt Robins' rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model and $g$-estimation method. We show in simulation studies that this approach corrects the bias contained in previous studies. We estimate that the effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival is 4.2 years, with a 95% confidence interval of $[-0.4,8.4]$ years. There is not strong evidence that winning an Oscar increases life expectancy.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0822

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zbMATH Keywords

causal inference\(g\)-estimationOscar Awardrank preserving structural accelerated failure time model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Applications of statistics (62P99) Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics (65C20)

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• The effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival: correcting for healthy performer survivor bias with a rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model
• Estimators of quantile difference between two samples with length-biased and right-censored data

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