Consistent least squares estimation in population-size-dependent branching processes

arXiv2211.10898MaRDI QIDQ6417834FDOQ6417834

Authors: Peter Braunsteins, Sophie Hautphenne, Carmen Minuesa 

Publication date: 20 November 2022

Abstract: We consider discrete-time parametric population-size-dependent branching processes (PSDBPs) with almost sure extinction and propose a new class of weighted least-squares estimators based on a single trajectory of population size counts. We prove that, conditional on non-extinction up to a finite time $n$, our estimators are consistent and asymptotic normal as $noinfty$. We pay particular attention to estimating the carrying capacity of a population. Our estimators are the first conditionally consistent estimators for PSDBPs, and more generally, for Markov models for populations with a carrying capacity. Through simulated examples, we demonstrate that our estimators outperform other least squares estimators for PSDBPs in a variety of settings. Finally, we apply our methods to estimate the carrying capacity of the endangered Chatham Island black robin population.

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