Approaching epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 with physics-informed neural networks

DOI10.1016/J.JFRANKLIN.2024.106671arXiv2302.08796OpenAlexW4391899899MaRDI QIDQ6426784FDOQ6426784

Authors: Shuai Han, Lukas Stelz, H. Stöcker, Lingxiao Wang, Kai Zhou 

Publication date: 17 February 2023

Abstract: A physics-informed neural network (PINN) embedded with the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is devised to understand the temporal evolution dynamics of infectious diseases. Firstly, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated on synthetic data as generated from the numerical solution of the susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered-dead (SAIRD) model. Then, the method is applied to COVID-19 data reported for Germany and shows that it can accurately identify and predict virus spread trends. The results indicate that an incomplete physics-informed model can approach more complicated dynamics efficiently. Thus, the present work demonstrates the high potential of using machine learning methods, e.g., PINNs, to study and predict epidemic dynamics in combination with compartmental models.

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfranklin.2024.106671

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Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Learning and adaptive systems in artificial intelligence (68T05) Epidemiology (92D30)

Cited In (5)

• Application of neural-network hybrid models in estimating the infection functions of nonlinear epidemic models
• Modeling epidemics: neural network based on data and SIR-model
• PINN training using biobjective optimization: the trade-off between data loss and residual loss
• Discovering first principle of behavioural change in disease transmission dynamics by deep learning
• Comparative study of physics-based model and machine learning model for epidemic forecasting and countermeasure

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