Size of Outbreaks Near the Epidemic Threshold

DOI10.1103/PHYSREVE.69.050901arXivq-bio/0402001WikidataQ47414366 ScholiaQ47414366MaRDI QIDQ6501784FDOQ6501784

Authors: E. Ben-Naim, P. L. Krapivsky 

Abstract: The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak n_* scales as N^{2/3} with N the population size. This scaling law implies that the average outbreak size <n> scales as N^{1/3}. Moreover, the maximal and the average duration of an outbreak grow as t_* ~ N^{1/3} and <t> ~ ln N, respectively.

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