Arithmetic statistics for Galois deformation rings

arXiv2108.13480MaRDI QIDQ6504638FDOQ6504638

Authors: Anwesh Ray, Tom Weston 

Abstract: Given an elliptic curve $E$ defined over the rational numbers and a prime $p$ at which $E$ has good reduction, we consider the Galois deformation ring parametrizing lifts of the residual representation on the $p$-torsion group $E[p]$. For a fixed elliptic curve without complex multiplication, it is shown that these deformation rings are unobstructed for all but finitely many primes. For a fixed prime $p$ and varying elliptic curve $E$, we relate the problem to the question of how often $p$ does not divide the modular degree. Heuristics due to M.Watkins based on those of Cohen and Lenstra indicate that this proportion should be $pro{d}_{igeq1}left(1-frac1p^{i}ight)approx1-frac1p-frac1p^2$. This heuristic is supported by computations which indicate that most elliptic curves (satisfying further conditions) have smooth deformation rings at a given prime $pgeq5$, and this proportion comes close to $100\mathrm{\%}$ as $p$ gets larger.

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Holomorphic modular forms of integral weight (11F11) Congruences for modular and (p)-adic modular forms (11F33) Galois representations (11F80) Elliptic curves over global fields (11G05)

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