Plant-wide byproduct gas distribution under uncertainty in iron and steel industry via quantile forecasting and robust optimization

DOI10.1016/J.APENERGY.2023.121603arXiv2302.03946MaRDI QIDQ6508737FDOQ6508737

Authors: Shenglong Jiang, Ian David Lockhard Bogle 

Abstract: Byproduct gas is one of the most important energy resources of the modern iron and steel industry because it is crucial in supplying energy to manufacturing processes as well as converting energies, such as stream and electricity. The optimal distribution of byproduct gases in an iron and steel plant can significantly reduce energy costs and carbon emissions. However, the balance between supply and demand is easily threatened by the quantity- and quality-related uncertainties from manufacturing processes. Following the supply-storage-conversion-demand network, this study developed an optimal gas distribution model considering uncertain supply and proposed a two-stage robust optimization (TSRO) model including "here-and-now" decisions, which minimize the start-stop cost of conversion units, and making "wait-and-see" decisions, which minimize the operating costs of gasholders and demand penalties. To implement the TSRO model in practice, this study proposes a "first quantify, then optimize" method: (1) quantify the uncertainty of surplus gas via a quantile regression-based multi-step time series model, and (2) find the optimal solution via a column-and-constraint generation algorithm. Finally, this study provides a case study of an industrial energy system to validate the proposed methodology.

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