Persistence time of SIS infections in heterogeneous populations and networks
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Abstract: For a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) infection model in a heterogeneous population, we present simple formulae giving the leading-order asymptotic (large population) behaviour of the mean persistence time, from an endemic state to extinction of infection. Our model may be interpreted as describing an infection spreading through either (i) a population with heterogeneity in individuals' susceptibility and/or infectiousness; or (ii) a heterogeneous directed network. Using our asymptotic formulae, we show that such heterogeneity can only reduce (to leading order) the mean persistence time compared to a corresponding homogeneous population, and that the greater the degree of heterogeneity, the more quickly infection will die out.
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Cited in
(8)- Precise estimates of persistence time for SIS infections in heterogeneous populations
- Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection
- On the time to extinction for a two-type version of Bartlett's epidemic model
- Epidemics on networks with heterogeneous population and stochastic infection rates
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