Comparative analysis of dengue versus chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica
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Abstract: For decades, dengue virus has been a cause of major public health concern in Costa Rica, due to its landscape and climatic conditions that favor the circumstances in which the vector, Aedes aegypti, thrives. The emergence and introduction throughout tropical and subtropical countries of the chikungunya virus, as of 2014, challenged Costa Rican health authorities to provide a correct diagnosis since it is also transmitted by the same vector and infected hosts may share similar symptoms. We study the 2015-2016 dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica while establishing how point estimates of epidemic parameters for both diseases compare to one another. Longitudinal weekly incidence reports of these outbreaks signal likely misdiagnosis of infected individuals: underreporting of chikungunya cases, while overreporting cases of dengue. Our comparative analysis is formulated with a single-outbreak deterministic model that features an undiagnosed class. Additionally, we also used a genetic algorithm in the context of weighted least squares to calculate point estimates of key model parameters and initial conditions, while formally quantifying misdiagnosis.
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Cited in
(7)- Analysis of the efficiency of dengue diagnosis in Guerro state 2007. Statistical facts and consensus
- Age and geographic dependence of Zika virus infection during the outbreak on Yap island, 2007
- Parameter estimates of the 2016--2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach
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- Transmission dynamics of dengue in Costa Rica: the role of hospitalizations
- Comparison between chikungunya and dengue viruses transmission based on a mathematical model
- Dengue model with early-life stage of vectors and age-structure within host
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