Comparative analysis of dengue versus chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica

DOI10.1007/S11587-018-0362-3zbMATH Open1395.92164arXiv1701.04504OpenAlexW2577818702MaRDI QIDQ722237FDOQ722237

Authors: D. Kharzeev 

Publication date: 23 July 2018

Published in: Ricerche di Matematica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: For decades, dengue virus has been a cause of major public health concern in Costa Rica, due to its landscape and climatic conditions that favor the circumstances in which the vector, Aedes aegypti, thrives. The emergence and introduction throughout tropical and subtropical countries of the chikungunya virus, as of 2014, challenged Costa Rican health authorities to provide a correct diagnosis since it is also transmitted by the same vector and infected hosts may share similar symptoms. We study the 2015-2016 dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica while establishing how point estimates of epidemic parameters for both diseases compare to one another. Longitudinal weekly incidence reports of these outbreaks signal likely misdiagnosis of infected individuals: underreporting of chikungunya cases, while overreporting cases of dengue. Our comparative analysis is formulated with a single-outbreak deterministic model that features an undiagnosed class. Additionally, we also used a genetic algorithm in the context of weighted least squares to calculate point estimates of key model parameters and initial conditions, while formally quantifying misdiagnosis.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.04504

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zbMATH Keywords

parameter estimationgenetic algorithmSIR modeldenguemathematical epidemiologychikungunyavector-host system

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point estimation (62F10) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30) Dynamical systems in biology (37N25)

Cites Work

• A new look at the statistical model identification
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• The mathematics of infectious diseases
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• Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions
• Comparing dengue and chikungunya emergence and endemic transmission in \textit{A. aegypti} and \textit{A. albopictus}
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• Models for dengue transmission and control

Cited In (4)

• Analysis of the efficiency of dengue diagnosis in Guerro state 2007. Statistical facts and consensus
• Parameter estimates of the 2016--2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach
• Transmission dynamics of dengue in Costa Rica: the role of hospitalizations
• Dengue model with early-life stage of vectors and age-structure within host

Uses Software

• LBFGS-B
• GA

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