Hazard function models to estimate mortality rates affecting fish populations with application to the sea mullet (\textit{Mugil cephalus}) fishery on the Queensland coast (Australia)

DOI10.1007/S13253-015-0237-YzbMATH Open1342.62176arXiv1501.03131OpenAlexW1874741357WikidataQ113353954 ScholiaQ113353954MaRDI QIDQ736732FDOQ736732

Authors: Marco Kienzle 

Publication date: 5 August 2016

Published in: Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided un-biased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22 $pm$ 0.08 year${}^{-1}$.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1501.03131

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zbMATH Keywords

Monte Carlosurvival analysisfish stock assessmentnatural mortality estimate

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Reliability and life testing (62N05) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Environmental economics (natural resource models, harvesting, pollution, etc.) (91B76)

Cites Work

• Model Selection and Multimodel Inference
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Survival analysis. A self-learning text.
• Title not available (Why is that?)

Cited In (2)

• Predicting changes in mean length with an age-structured stock assessment model
• Age-dependent tag return models for estimating fishing mortality, natural mortality, and selectivity

Uses Software

• R

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