A two-state mixed hidden Markov model for risky teenage driving behavior

DOI10.1214/14-AOAS765zbMATH Open1397.62287arXiv1509.04831OpenAlexW1872961266WikidataQ30823709 ScholiaQ30823709MaRDI QIDQ746674FDOQ746674

Authors: John C. Jackson, Paul S. Albert, Zhiwei Zhang 

Publication date: 28 October 2015

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper proposes a joint model for longitudinal binary and count outcomes. We apply the model to a unique longitudinal study of teen driving where risky driving behavior and the occurrence of crashes or near crashes are measured prospectively over the first 18 months of licensure. Of scientific interest is relating the two processes and predicting crash and near crash outcomes. We propose a two-state mixed hidden Markov model whereby the hidden state characterizes the mean for the joint longitudinal crash/near crash outcomes and elevated g-force events which are a proxy for risky driving. Heterogeneity is introduced in both the conditional model for the count outcomes and the hidden process using a shared random effect. An estimation procedure is presented using the forward-backward algorithm along with adaptive Gaussian quadrature to perform numerical integration. The estimation procedure readily yields hidden state probabilities as well as providing for a broad class of predictors.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.04831

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zbMATH Keywords

joint modelhidden Markov modelrandom effectsadaptive quadrature

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25)

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Cited In (5)

• A Bayesian finite mixture change-point model for assessing the risk of novice teenage drivers
• The Effect of Duration and Delay of Licensure on Risk of Crash
• A two-state mixed hidden Markov model for risky teenage driving behavior
• Innovative modeling of naturalistic driving data: inference and prediction
• Exploring the randomness of mentally generated head–tail sequences

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