Intensional vs extensional probabilities from their origins to Laplace

DOI10.1016/0315-0860(91)90349-3MaRDI QIDQ752672zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors U. Garibaldi, Maria Antonietta Penco

Publication date 1991

Published in Historia Mathematica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/0315-0860(91)90349-3

zbMATH Keywords

credibilityposterior probability

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

History of mathematics in the 17th century (01A45) History of mathematics in the 18th century (01A50) Probability and inductive logic (03B48) History of probability theory (60-03)

Review text

This is a study of an anonymous paper ``Calculation of the credibility of human testimony (1699) and its comparison with the relevant considerations of J. Bernoulli (with his ``pure and ``mixed arguments) and Laplace. The authors conclude that the 17th-century notion of degree of certitude measures the correctness of the ``internal state of the witness. They do not explain the meaning of the adjectives used in the title of their article, while commenting on the contribution of J. Craig (1699) they fail to mention S. Stigler's recent interpretation of his mathematics.

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Cites work

• An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S.
• Combined Evidence
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• Rileggendo Bernoulli

Cited in

(3)

• On the authorship of ``A calculation of the credibility of human testimony
• Is scientific observation testimony?
• J.-H. Lambert's theory of probable syllogisms

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