Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach

DOI10.1214/11-AOAS488zbMATH Open1234.62140arXiv1202.5901WikidataQ57385693 ScholiaQ57385693MaRDI QIDQ765976FDOQ765976

Maria Xiridou, Maaike G. Van Veen, Stefano Conti, Daniela De Angelis, Anne M. Presanis, Martin C. Donoghoe, Annemarie Rinder Stengaard

Publication date: 22 March 2012

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence and prevalence estimation. MPES is the statistical methodology adopted by the Health Protection Agency in the UK for its annual national assessment of the HIV epidemic, and is acknowledged by the World Health Organization and UNAIDS as a valuable technique for the estimation of adult HIV prevalence from surveillance data. This paper describes the results of utilizing a Bayesian MPES approach to model HIV prevalence in the Netherlands at the end of 2007, using an array of field data from different study designs on various population risk subgroups and with a varying degree of regional coverage. Auxiliary data and expert opinion were additionally incorporated to resolve issues arising from biased, insufficient or inconsistent evidence. This case study offers a demonstration of the ability of MPES to naturally integrate and critically reconcile disparate and heterogeneous sources of evidence, while producing reliable estimates of HIV prevalence used to support public health decision-making.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1202.5901

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zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian inferencehierarchical modelsbias adjustment

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Estimation in survival analysis and censored data (62N02) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical epidemiology (92C60)

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Cited In (4)

• Estimation of HIV burden through Bayesian evidence synthesis
• Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach
• A Model of Toxoplasmosis Incidence in the UK: Evidence Synthesis and Consistency of Evidence
• Evidence synthesis for stochastic epidemic models

Uses Software

• WinBUGS
• UNAIDS

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