Computation of extreme values of time averaged observables in climate models with large deviation techniques

DOI10.1007/S10955-019-02429-7zbMATH Open1443.86020arXiv1907.05762OpenAlexW3100504744WikidataQ126768551 ScholiaQ126768551MaRDI QIDQ781841FDOQ781841

Authors: Francesco Ragone, F. Bouchet 

Publication date: 20 July 2020

Published in: Journal of Statistical Physics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are characterized by large anomalies of the time average of an observable over a long time. The framework of Donsker-Varadhan large deviation theory could therefore be useful for their analysis. In this paper we discuss how concepts and numerical algorithms developed in relation with large deviation theory can be applied to study extreme, rare fluctuations of time averages of surface temperatures at regional scale with comprehensive numerical climate models. We study the convergence of large deviation functions for the time averaged European surface temperature obtained with direct numerical simulation of the climate model Plasim, and discuss their climate implications. We show how using a rare event algorithm can improve the efficiency of the computation of the large deviation rate functions. We discuss the relevance of the large deviation asymptotics for applications, and we show how rare event algorithms can be used also to improve the statistics of events on time scales shorter than the one needed for reaching the large deviation asymptotics.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.05762

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zbMATH Keywords

large deviation theoryheat wavesclimate extremesrare event algorithms

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Climate science and climate modeling (86A08) Geostatistics (86A32) Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to statistics (62-02) Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to geophysics (86-02) Meteorology and atmospheric physics (86A10)

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Cited In (7)

• Analysis and simulation of extremes and rare events in complex systems
• Coupling rare event algorithms with data-based learned committor functions using the analogue Markov chain
• Collapse of transitional wall turbulence captured using a rare events algorithm
• Computation of extreme heat waves in climate models using a large deviation algorithm
• Convergence of extreme value statistics in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model
• Introduction to the special issue on the statistical mechanics of climate
• Multifidelity Bayesian Experimental Design to Quantify Rare-Event Statistics

Uses Software

• ismev

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