The manifold of variations: hazard assessment of short-term impactors

DOI10.1007/S10569-020-09990-4MaRDI QIDQ828884zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Alessio Del Vigna

Publication date 5 May 2021

Published in Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.01879

zbMATH Keywords

admissible regionimminent impactorsmanifold of variationsmathematical modellingprobability computation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Orbital mechanics (70M20)

Abstract: When an asteroid has a few observations over a short time span the information contained in the observational arc could be so little that a full orbit determination may be not possible. One of the methods developed in recent years to overcome this problem is based on the systematic ranging and combined with the Admissible Region theory to constrain the poorly-determined topocentric range and range-rate. The result is a set of orbits compatible with the observations, the Manifold Of Variations, a 2-dimensional compact manifold parametrized over the Admissible Region. Such a set of orbits represents the asteroid confidence region and is used for short-term hazard predictions. In this paper we review the Manifold Of Variations method and make a detailed analysis of the related probabilistic formalism.

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Cites work

• New definition of discovery for solar system objects
• Orbit determination with very short arcs. I: Admissible regions
• Theory of orbit determination.
• Use of the semilinear method to predict the impact corridor on ground

Cited in

(8)

• Orbit determination with very short arcs. I: Admissible regions
• Use of the semilinear method to predict the impact corridor on ground
• The manifold of variations: impact location of short-term impactors
• Transition methods for stochastic simulation of parametric uncertainty in inverse problems of orbital dynamics
• A method for the fast MOID computation for two confocal heliocentric orbits
• The near Earth asteroid hazard and mitigation
• Collision probability for Earth-crossing asteroids using orbital ranging
• Impact probability under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

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