The role of stochasticity in noise-induced tipping point cascades: a master equation approach

DOI10.1007/S11538-021-00889-1zbMATH Open1466.92152arXiv2011.09089OpenAlexW3151199923WikidataQ113900175 ScholiaQ113900175MaRDI QIDQ829326FDOQ829326

Alan Hastings, Abhishek Mallela

Publication date: 5 May 2021

Published in: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Tipping points have been shown to be ubiquitous, both in models and empirically in a range of physical and biological systems. The question of how tipping points cascade through systems has been less well studied and is an important one. A study of noise-induced tipping, in particular, could provide key insights into tipping cascades. Here, we consider a specific example of a simple model system that could have cascading tipping points. This model consists of two interacting populations with underlying Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, in separate patches connected by dispersal, which can generate bistability. From an ecological standpoint, we look for rescue effects whereby one population can prevent the collapse of a second population. As a way to investigate the stochastic dynamics, we use an individual-based modeling approach rooted in chemical reaction network theory. Then, using continuous-time Markov chains and the theory of first passage times, we essentially approximate, or emulate, the original high-dimensional model by a Markov chain with just four states, where each state corresponds to a combination of population thresholds. Analysis of this reduced model shows when the system is likely to recover, as well as when tipping cascades through the whole system.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.09089

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zbMATH Keywords

first passage timestochasticityAllee effectsalternative stable statesresiliencetipping points

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Ecology (92D40) Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30)

Cites Work

• Stochastic processes in physics and chemistry.
• A comparison of three different stochastic population models with regard to persistence time
• First-Passage Phenomena and Their Applications
• Handbook of stochastic methods for physics, chemistry and the natural sciences.
• Quasi-stationary distributions for discrete-state models
• Multiple attractors and long transients in spatially structured populations with an Allee effect
• How noise and coupling influence leading indicators of population extinction in a spatially extended ecological system

Cited In (4)

• Tipping cascades in a multi-patch system with noise and spatial coupling
• Variation in environmental stochasticity dramatically affects viability and extinction time in a predator-prey system with high prey group cohesion
• Optimal management of stochastic invasion in a metapopulation with Allee effects
• Noise-induced tipping under periodic forcing: Preferred tipping phase in a non-adiabatic forcing regime

Uses Software

• Matlab

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