Cramér asymptotics for finite time first passage probabilities of general Lévy processes

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Abstract: We derive the exact asymptotics of P(supuleqtX(u)>x) if x and t tend to infinity with x/t constant, for a L'{e}vy process X that admits exponential moments. The proof is based on a renewal argument and a two-dimensional renewal theorem of H"{o}glund (1990).


Let \(X\) be a Lévy processes with finite exponential moments, and \(\psi(\gamma)=\log E e^{\gamma X(1)}\). Under certain assumptions on \(\psi\) and for \(x\) and \(t\) tending to infinity in a fixed proportion \(v\), the authors prove that \(P(\sup_{u\leq t} X(u)>x)\sim C_\gamma e^{-\gamma x}\) if \(0<v<\psi'(\gamma)\) and \(P(\sup_{u\leq t} X(u)>x)\sim D_v t^{-1/2} e^{-\psi^*(v)t}\) if \(v>\psi'(\gamma)\), with \(C_0=1\) and \(D_v\) being given explicitly.











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