Multitype randomized Reed-Frost epidemics and epidemics upon random graphs

DOI10.1214/105051606000000123MaRDI QIDQ862226zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Peter Neal

Publication date 5 February 2007

Published in The Annals of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0610180

zbMATH Keywords

branching process approximationscentral limit theoremsrandom group allocationweak law of large numbers for final size distributions

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Central limit and other weak theorems (60F05) Signal detection and filtering (aspects of stochastic processes) (60G35) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: We consider a multitype epidemic model which is a natural extension of the randomized Reed--Frost epidemic model. The main result is the derivation of an asymptotic Gaussian limit theorem for the final size of the epidemic. The method of proof is simpler, and more direct, than is used for similar results elsewhere in the epidemics literature. In particular, the results are specialized to epidemics upon extensions of the Bernoulli random graph.

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Cited in

(16)

• The dimension of Reed-Frost epidemic models with randomized susceptibility levels
• A chain binomial epidemic with asymptomatics motivated by COVID-19 modelling
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