Modeling the distribution of ranks, Selmer groups, and Shafarevich-Tate groups of elliptic curves

DOI10.4310/CJM.2015.V3.N3.A1MaRDI QIDQ887293zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Manjul Bhargava, Daniel M. Kane, Bjorn Poonen, H. W. jun. Lenstra, Eric Rains

Publication date 28 October 2015

Published in Cambridge Journal of Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1304.3971

zbMATH Keywords

elliptic curvesdistributionsSelmer groupsTate-Shafarevich groupsalternating matrixmodules of cofinite type

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Elliptic curves over global fields (11G05) Finite ground fields in algebraic geometry (14G15) Elliptic curves (14H52)

Abstract: Using maximal isotropic submodules in a quadratic module over Z_p, we prove the existence of a natural discrete probability distribution on the set of isomorphism classes of short exact sequences of co-finite type Z_p-modules, and then conjecture that as E varies over elliptic curves over a fixed global field k, the distribution of 0 --> E(k) tensor Q_p/Z_p --> Sel_{p^infty} E --> Sha[p^infty] --> 0 is that one. We show that this single conjecture would explain many of the known theorems and conjectures on ranks, Selmer groups, and Shafarevich-Tate groups of elliptic curves. We also prove the existence of a discrete probability distribution of the set of isomorphism classes of finite abelian p-groups equipped with a nondegenerate alternating pairing, defined in terms of the cokernel of a random alternating matrix over Z_p, and we prove that the two probability distributions are compatible with each other and with Delaunay's predicted distribution for Sha. Finally, we prove new theorems on the fppf cohomology of elliptic curves in order to give further evidence for our conjecture.

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