On predictive density estimation for location families under integrated squared error loss

DOI10.1016/J.JMVA.2015.07.013zbMATH Open1327.62054arXiv1408.5297OpenAlexW1451217718MaRDI QIDQ893168FDOQ893168

Authors: Tatsuya Kubokawa, Éric Marchand, William E. Strawderman 

Publication date: 13 November 2015

Published in: Journal of Multivariate Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Our investigation concerns the estimation of predictive densities and a study of efficiency as measured by the frequentist risk of such predictive densities with integrated $L_2$ and $L_1$ losses. Our findings relate to a $p-$variate spherically symmetric observable $Xsim{p}_X(|x-mu{|}^2)$ and the objective of estimating the density of $Ysim{q}_Y(|y-mu{|}^2)$ based on $X$. For $L_2$ loss, we describe Bayes estimation, minimum risk equivariant estimation (MRE), and minimax estimation. We focus on the risk performance of the benchmark minimum risk equivariant estimator, plug-in estimators, and plug-in type estimators with expanded scale. For the multivariate normal case, we make use of a duality result with a point estimation problem bringing into play reflected normal loss. In three of more dimensions (i.e., $pgeq3$), we show that the MRE estimator is inadmissible under $L_2$ loss and provide dominating estimators. This brings into play Stein-type results for estimating a multivariate normal mean with a loss which is a concave and increasing function of $|hatmu-mu{|}^2$. We also study the phenomenon of improvement on the plug-in density estimator of the form $q_Y(|y-aX{|}^2),,0<aleq1,,$ by a subclass of scale expansions $frac1c^p,q_Y(|(y-aX)/c{|}^2)$ with $c>1$, showing in some cases, inevitably for large enough $p$, that all choices $c>1$ are dominating estimators. Extensions are obtained for scale mixture of normals including a general inadmissibility result of the MRE estimator for $pgeq3$. Finally, we describe and expand on analogous plug-in dominance results for spherically symmetric distributions with $pgeq4$ under $L_1$ loss.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.5297

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zbMATH Keywords

minimaxconvolutionsmultivariate normaldominanceinadmissibilityloss functionpredictive densityrestricted parameter spaceintegrated squared errorStein estimationfrequentist riskminimum risk equivariantscale mixture of normalsconcave loss

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point estimation (62F10) Bayesian inference (62F15) Minimax procedures in statistical decision theory (62C20) Parametric inference under constraints (62F30) Statistical decision theory and fuzziness (62C86)

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Cited In (14)

• Minimaxity and admissibility of predictive density estimators under S-Hellinger distances
• On the Stein effect under density power divergence loss
• Bayesian estimation and prediction for certain type of mixtures
• On predictive density estimation under \(\alpha\)-divergence loss
• On predictive density estimation for location families under integrated absolute error loss
• Inadmissibility of the best equivariant predictive density in the unknown variance case
• Novel credibility approaches for Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient estimation
• Bayesian inference and prediction for mean-mixtures of normal distributions
• Predictive density estimation under the Wasserstein loss
• Predictive density estimators with integrated \(L_1\) loss
• On efficient prediction and predictive density estimation for normal and spherically symmetric models
• On minimax optimality of sparse Bayes predictive density estimates
• On predictive density estimation with additional information
• On predictive density estimation for gamma models with parametric constraints

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