Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022
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Publication:94396
DOI10.48550/ARXIV.2209.11334arXiv2209.11334MaRDI QIDQ94396FDOQ94396
David J. D. Earn, Jonathan Dushoff, Benjamin M. Bolker, Michael Li
Publication date: 22 September 2022
Abstract: Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used.
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