Escape probability, mean residence time and geophysical fluid particle dynamics
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Abstract: Stochastic dynamical systems arise as models for fluid particle motion in geophysical flows with random velocity fields. Escape probability (from a fluid domain) and mean residence time (in a fluid domain) quantify fluid transport between flow regimes of different characteristic motion. We consider a quasigeostrophic meandering jet model with random perturbations. This jet is parameterized by the parameter , where is the rotation rate of the earth, the earth's radius and the latitude. Note that and are fixed, so is a monotonic decreasing function of the latitude. The unperturbed jet (for ) consists of a basic flow with attached eddies. With random perturbations, there is fluid exchange between regimes of different characteristic motion. We quantify the exchange by escape probability and mean residence time.
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- Quantifying model uncertainty in dynamical systems driven by non-Gaussian Lévy stable noise with observations on mean exit time or escape probability
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