A resampling-based test to detect person-to-person transmission of infectious disease

DOI10.1214/07-AOAS105zbMATH Open1129.62110arXiv0709.0406OpenAlexW2002327280WikidataQ37187393 ScholiaQ37187393MaRDI QIDQ995744FDOQ995744

Yang Yang, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. jun. Longini

Publication date: 10 September 2007

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Early detection of person-to-person transmission of emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza is crucial for containing pandemics. We developed a simple permutation test and its refined version for this purpose. A simulation study shows that the refined permutation test is as powerful as or outcompetes the conventional test built on asymptotic theory, especially when the sample size is small. In addition, our resampling methods can be applied to a broad range of problems where an asymptotic test is not available or fails. We also found that decent statistical power could be attained with just a small number of cases, if the disease is moderately transmissible between humans.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0709.0406

zbMATH Keywords

MLElikelihood ratio

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Nonparametric hypothesis testing (62G10) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

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